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I suppose that by now everyone has heard of Trump’s offer to send the American military to “wage WAR on the drug cartels and wipe them off the face of the earth,” which he asserts can be done “quickly and effectively. “
Trump phrased this as an offer to help, not a threat to invade, which is reassuring. AMLO, Mexico’s president, wisely declined the offer.

我猜想,大家應該都已經聽說了特朗普提議派遣美國軍隊“對販毒集團發動戰爭,他聲稱這可以“迅速有效地” 把 毒販從地球上抹去”。特朗普為令人放心將此行動定性為提供幫助,而不是入侵,不料墨西哥總統奧夫拉多爾明智地拒絕了這項提議。

While the President seems to have made the offer in good faith, he has little idea of Mexico, the military, or the cartels. The American military could not come close to wiping them off the face of the earth, much less effectively and quickly. Such an incursion would be a political and military disaster. The President needs to do some reading.

雖然總統似乎是非常真誠地提出這項提議,但他對墨西哥、軍方或卡特爾幾乎一無所知。美國軍方幾乎無法將它們從地球上抹去,更不用說有效和迅速了。這樣的入侵只會是一場政治和軍事災難。總統有必要先去閱讀相關資料。



Let’s consider terrain. Terrain is what militaries fight in. Start with the Sierra Madre, which I suspect Trump doesn’t know from Madre Teresa. This is the brutally inhospitable mountain range in the northwest of Mexico, from which a great many of the narcos come.(Sinaloa is next door.) Forestation is dense, slopes steep, communication only by narrow trails that the natives know as well as you know how to find your bathroom. Nobody else knows them. American infantry would be helpless here.

我們來看一下地理地形。地形是有關于軍隊作戰的。首先就是一座我甚至懷疑特朗普都不知道的馬德雷山。這是墨西哥西北部一坐荒涼的山脈,在這里可以發現大量的毒品種植物。(錫那羅亞在馬德雷山隔壁)山里樹林茂密,山坡陡峭。就像只有你才知道如何快速找到你家的浴室一樣,只有那些沒人認識的鄉下人才知道存在著狹窄小徑。美國步兵在這里會束手無策。

Of the rest of Mexico, much consists of jungle, presenting the same problems as the Sierra Madre. Here we encounter the problem that has proved disastrous for US forces in war after war: there is no way to tell who is a narco and who isn’t.

在墨西哥其他地區,大部分也都是馬德雷山一樣讓人找不著北的叢林地形,在這里我們還會遇到一個問題,同樣會在一場又一場的戰爭中給美軍帶去了災難性的后果:,那就是沒有辦法分辨誰是毒品販子,而誰又不是。

In cities and towns, narcos are indistinguishable from the general population. How–precisely how, I want to know–would American troops, kitted out in body armor and goggles and looking like idiots, fight the narcos in villages with which they were unfamiliar? The narcos, well armed, would pick off GIs from windows, whereupon the Americans would respond by firing at random, calling in air strikes, and otherwise killing locals. These would now hate Americans. The narcos know this.

在城市和城鎮里,毒販與一般人沒有什么區別。美國軍隊會在不熟悉的城鎮與毒梟作戰嗎? 他們穿著防彈衣,戴著護目鏡看起來像個白癡一樣找毒販時候,全副武裝的毒販會從窗戶里射殺美國士兵,美國人會隨機開火,且呼叫空襲,這樣可能就殺死當地人。而這些當地人原來就憎恨美國人,毒梟知道這一點。

Culiacan, Sinaloa, Chapo’s home city. It has a high concentration of narcos. Suppose that you are an infantry officer, sent to “fight the cartels.” You have, say, twenty troops with you, all with hi-tech equipment and things dangling. How do you propose to fight the cartels here?

庫利亞坎,錫那羅亞,查波的家鄉。這里的毒品滲透率很高。比如假設你是一名步兵軍官,被派去“打擊卡特爾”,還有20名士兵和你在一起,都配備高科技裝備和武器。你打算怎么對付這里的卡特爾?

Don’t expect help from the locals. Most would much rather see you killed than the narcos. And if they collaborated they and their families would be killed. This would discourage them.

不要指望當地人會幫助你。大多數人寧愿看到你被殺而不愿他被毒販殺。如果他和美國人合作,他們的家人就會被殺。所以他們不會提供消息給美國人。

And of course the narcos will have the option of fading into the population and waiting for the gringos to go home. This means that the invasion would become an occupation. The invading forces would thus need bases, which would become permanent. Bases where? All over the country, which is where the narcos are?

當然,毒梟們也可以選擇逐漸消失在人群中,等待著外國佬回家。這意味著入侵將成為占領。入侵部隊因此需要基地,而基地將成為永久性的。因為毒梟分布在國內每一個地方,那么基地建在哪里?



Nuff said. May God protect Mexico

說了夠多的理由啦 。愿上帝保佑墨西哥